TL;DR:
Prediction markets assign a 94% probability to Democrats taking control of the House of Representatives, projecting 235 seats versus 186 for Republicans.
Options contracts show that five-delta puts are trading at a 13-point premium over at-the-money volatility, compared to just two points for call options.
Binance recorded net outflows of approximately $3.5 billion following its weekend reopening, against a total custody base of over $170 billion in balance sheet assets.
Russell Thompson , director at Hilbert Group , warned that Bitcoin could face additional risks if Democrats claim victory in the U.S. midterm elections this Tuesday, November 3.
The executive noted in the firm’s market update that the leading cryptocurrency’s current price does not reflect the political impact that a power shift in the U.S. legislative branch would bring. According to Thompson’s statements cited in the Hilbert Group report, a significant Democratic advance could complicate President Donald Trump’s administration’s legislative agenda over the next two years.
Prediction market platforms reflect a 94% probability that the Democratic Party will secure a majority in the House of Representatives, projecting a distribution of 235 Democratic lawmakers versus 186 Republicans. Thompson pointed out that midterm election polling often shows historical discrepancies compared to final results.
Hilbert Group’s trading desk is maintaining reduced risk exposure amid three converging factors of uncertainty: the electoral process, the operational fallout following the reported security breach at Binance, and the U.S. military deployment in the Middle East. Thompson also suggested that Middle East tensions could escalate over the next two weeks if the White House refocuses its attention there once Election Day concludes.
Technical pressure and defensive hedging in the derivatives market
On the technical front, Bitcoin’s price is testing support levels near $78,000 . According to Hilbert Group’s analysis, the breach of the initial trendline support occurred after a downward swing of roughly $4,000 attributed to the cyberattack against Binance.
Thompson identified a primary support zone between $76,000 and $78,000. Hilbert Group’s models project additional containment levels at $74,000 and $72,000 should the weakness persist.
Short-term momentum indicators have remained in the red since October 9, when Bitcoin was trading around $85,000. Adding to this behavior is a defensive positioning among derivatives traders. Options book data reveals high demand for downside protection, reflected in 13-point premiums for five-delta puts, contrasting with the two points recorded on equivalent call positions.
The maximum pain level in the options market sits near $75,000 . For the next 48 hours, Hilbert Group’s investment management outlined immediate support at $77,000 and technical resistance bands between $79,000 and $79,500.
The macroeconomic backdrop introduces additional monetary tightening variables. According to futures market data cited by Thompson, traders are pricing in a 72% to 73% probability of an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve at its upcoming December meeting.
This expectation stems from recent economic data releases and hawkish remarks delivered by central bank Chair Kevin Warsh.
Regarding the exchange sector, Hilbert Group reports highlight that Binance processed net outflows of $3.5 billion after restoring operations over the weekend. That outflow stands against a reported total custody of over $170 billion in assets held on the platform’s balance sheet. Regarding the origin of the security breach affecting the venue, Thompson referenced indications pointing to North Korean groups, though he clarified that an official attribution still lacks formal confirmation.
Global financial markets are now squarely focused on the opening of polling stations for the U.S. legislative elections scheduled for this Tuesday, November 3.
