Confirmation of the Qeshm strike , and of weeks of unannounced US attacks, directly challenges the deal optimism that pushed crude nearly 4% lower on Monday. The more significant risk for oil is the report that Gulf states were told to prepare for a short, intense US operation shortly after the midterms. That puts a clear event window on the calendar, just as Trump publicly rules out new strikes and credits falling oil prices to fading war fears. The result is a two-way market: crude is exposed to a sharp rebound if a broader operation materialises, while continued restraint and progress through mediators would support Monday’s lower levels. Iran’s threat to retaliate within and beyond the Middle East keeps tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz as the central risk.
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Washington is quietly hitting Iranian targets while Trump talks down the prospect of war, leaving oil traders to weigh public reassurance against preparations for a possible post-election operation.
Summary:
The US struck Iran’s Qeshm Island on Monday, US officials said, confirming earlier unverified reports of explosions there
The attack is the latest in a series of limited strikes the US has carried out against Iran in recent weeks without public announcement
Some officials described the strikes as defensive, aimed at limiting Iran’s ability to attack commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz
Trump said on Monday the US had not been fighting Iran for months and answered “no” when asked about strikes after the midterms, though officials said he is weighing all options
The US has told Gulf nations to prepare for a short and intense operation shortly after the election, according to the report
Iran said the onus is on Washington to reach a deal, while Iranian leaders have warned of retaliation inside and beyond the Middle East if the conflict reignites
The United States struck Iran’s Qeshm Island on Monday, US officials said, confirming earlier unverified reports of explosions there. The strike was the latest in a string of limited attacks Washington has quietly carried out against Iran in recent weeks, even as President Donald Trump played down the risk of renewed war, the Wall Street Journal (gated) reported.
The strike came on the same day Trump told reporters the conflict with Iran had effectively ended, saying “we haven’t been doing any fighting for months.” Officials told the Journal, however, that smaller-scale strikes had been under way for several weeks. Some described them as defensive, intended to deny Iran the freedom to attack commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Unlike earlier phases of the war, the attacks have not been publicly announced. One official said the campaign was being kept quiet to avoid signalling any intention to resume major combat.
Qeshm sits at the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz and hosts a large underground missile site, a naval base and a major desalination plant. The US has targeted the island in earlier rounds of fighting, and officials have discussed seizing it, according to the Journal. The Defense Department referred questions to US Central Command, which did not immediately comment.
The report also pointed to preparations for a possible wider campaign. Centcom has moved additional missile defenses and munitions into the region, and the US has told Gulf nations to prepare for a short, intense operation shortly after Tuesday’s midterm elections, the Journal said. Trump has said for weeks that all-out war could resume after the vote. Senior officials have presented options ranging from further airstrikes to tighter sanctions and a stricter blockade on Iranian trade.
In the hours before voting, though, Trump softened his tone. He said “no” when asked whether he was considering strikes after the midterms, and he and Vice President JD Vance suggested negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program could still succeed. Administration officials said the president continues to weigh all his options.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said responsibility for any deal now lies with Washington and described Iran’s demands as reasonable. Senior Iranian figures, including Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, have warned that Iran would retaliate both within and beyond the region if the US reignites the conflict.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
