The Zloty has experienced some volatility over the past couple of weeks. As of November 3, EUR/PLN was trading at 4.4190. This was the highest rate reported by the ECB’s daily data for this chart. When the Zloty weakens, it will cost consumers more to purchase imported goods. It also makes vacationing in other countries much less expensive for those earning in Euros. Traders find a weaker Zloty as an indication of a trend. Will this be short lived or are there indications that this could continue? Below is what the chart looks like.
Figure 1: EUR/PLN daily ECB reference rate, 3 August to 3 November 2026, with support at 4.365 and the break above 4.40.
Reading the Chart
The red line begins on the left side of the chart and represents the EUR/PLN exchange rate. It first appears in early August at approximately 4.30. It reaches a bottom of 4.2955 on August 26. After that, it starts to rise. At the end of September, it is trading around 4.37. There is a pink area between 4.3635 and 4.3700 which acts as a major support area. The price has fallen below the pink line on three separate occasions in October. Each time, the price rebounded. The buyers of the zloty were able to protect the pink line until they ultimately stopped doing so. On October 23, the price moved up significantly to 4.3945. On October 26, the price broke through the 4.40 mark. The current price of the pair is around 4.42, which is approximately 3% higher than where the pair was trading during the month of August. Since the European Central Bank sets the daily exchange rate for the EUR/PLN pair, it provides an accurate account of the recent upward movement. Often times when a breakout occurs, the price will return to retest the prior level.
Watch 4.40 closely. Our USD/PLN analysis shows the same story from the dollar side.
Why the Zloty Is Weak
Poland’s inflation fell to 3.5% in October from 4.1%. That sounds good. But Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose calls the drop “highly misleading” . Fuel tax cuts caused it. It is not real disinflation, he says. The fuel support ends at year-end. He expects the zloty to lag “because of political and central bank uncertainty.” Political risk hits other emerging currencies too. See our USD/MXN report for a similar case.
Levels to Trade
The NBP held its rate at 3.75% on 4 November. ING says the bank “can afford to wait.” It does not expect hikes before early 2027. Its new forecast sees inflation near 4.2% in 2027. This year it is about 3.2%. That keeps pressure on the zloty. Now 4.40 should act as support. The next round number is 4.45. A close back under 4.365 would cancel the breakout. Our smart forex setups guide shows how to plan entries around levels like these. Check the ECB rate against your broker’s quote. Live prices move more.
Three Scenarios
Bullish for EUR/PLN (weaker zloty): a close above 4.42 targets 4.45.
Bearish for EUR/PLN (stronger zloty): a close below 4.365 targets 4.30.
Neutral: the pair consolidates between 4.40 and 4.43.
Short and Long-Term Outlook
The short-term trend is in Favor of those who are buying EUR/PLN; however, the long-term trend could be paused if the recent strong rally has run its course. Additionally, the long-term trend could see higher levels of inflation once the fuel tax cuts end at the conclusion of this year.
Commerzbank expects continued pressure on the zloty. A hawkish NBP surprise would change the story. Other central banks are in focus too, as our GBP/JPY forecast shows. Polish exporters like a weak zloty. Importers do not. Trends can last longer than you expect. They can also end faster than you hope. Stay flexible. Will the 4.40 breakout hold? Or will the zloty fight back? Decide your stop before you click buy.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is the zloty falling?
The NBP has kept interest rates steady at 3.75 percent, even though other central banks could raise rates. This was partly due to concerns regarding both political and central bank plans.
What is the next EUR/PLN resistance?
The round number 4.45 is the next target after the break above 4.40.
What is the NBP interest rate?
The NBP kept its reference rate at 3.75% on 4 November 2026.
The post EUR/PLN Forecast: Zloty Slides Past 4.40 as NBP Waits appeared first in UK on InvestingCube .
