Oil prices rebounded for a second session on Friday, November 6, 2026, as tanker attacks renewed supply concerns, although Brent crude remained headed for a steep weekly oil price decline.
January Brent futures rose 1.31% to $99.58 a barrel at 05:04 GMT, after briefly crossing $100. WTI oil prices gained 0.95% to $91.38. Both benchmarks were still on course for losses of around 12% this week.
Fresh incidents near the Strait of Hormuz supported prices, while hopes that the Iran war could ease continued to pull them lower. These forces leave traders questioning whether Friday’s recovery can last.
Why are oil prices falling despite Friday’s rebound?
Oil tumbled about 8% on Wednesday , reaching two-month lows after Democrats won control of both chambers of Congress in the US midterm elections.
Traders reasoned that the political shift could increase pressure on President Donald Trump to seek a diplomatic end to the US-Israeli conflict with Iran.
That possibility reduced the extra amount buyers were willing to pay for the risk of interrupted Middle Eastern supplies. It did not mean a ceasefire had been reached or normal shipping had resumed.
“Crude oil rebounded as traders viewed Wednesday’s selloff as overdone,” ANZ strategist Daniel Hynes said in a Friday note.
Brent and West Texas Intermediate subsequently recovered on Thursday and Friday, but their projected weekly declines remained around 12% and 12.1%.
Those figures are developing weekly estimates, not completed closing returns. The comparison also follows January Brent futures because the December contract expired on October 30.
The key question is whether expectations of diplomacy have run ahead of improvements in supply security.
Strait of Hormuz oil prices: Why tanker attacks still matter
The rally gained traction after fresh attacks on tankers in the Gulf and around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route connecting Middle Eastern exporters with global buyers.
Iranian authorities reported three additional tanker attacks on Thursday.
Britain’s UK Maritime Trade Operations agency said incidents involving oil-carrying vessels remained close to record levels, although details of every reported attack have not been independently established.
Hynes estimated that oil shipments through the strait were running below 60% of capacity. His assessment shows why expectations of peace alone cannot guarantee uninterrupted exports.
Ships facing threats may change routes, wait for escorts or pay more for insurance. Those costs can push up delivered crude prices even when producers have sufficient oil available.
KCM analyst Tim Waterer told Reuters that prices could remain vulnerable to sudden jumps until there was a “credible path to safer, cheaper transit through the Gulf”.
Crude oil prices today therefore reflect more than headlines about negotiations, as traders assess whether tankers can reach refineries on time.
Brent crude oil price today: Can JPMorgan’s surplus cap the recovery?
The bigger obstacle to a lasting rebound may be the amount of oil available globally. JPMorgan estimated on November 4 that supply exceeded demand by 1.1 million barrels a day in September, with the surplus widening to 1.4 million in October.
Its commodities researchers, led by Natasha Kaneva, pointed to Middle Eastern exports recovering to 20.7 million barrels a day from 9.8 million in March. Latin American producers added around 1.5 million barrels a day from a year earlier.
Meanwhile, demand had fallen by an estimated 3.3 million barrels a day since the conflict began.
HSBC separately raised its fourth-quarter Saudi Aramco output forecast to 8.3 million barrels a day from 6.3 million, citing faster export recovery.
These are bank estimates, not proof that every market is well supplied. The International Energy Agency had projected continued deficits in its October assessment.
AI disclosure: AI tools assisted with research and drafting of this piece. An Invezz editor reviewed the facts, sources and wording before publication. Any opinions or analysis are Invezz’s, not those of an automated system.
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