Bitcoin forecast today: The rebound looks better, but $79,000 is the real test
Markets are opening the week with several interesting developments worth following at investingLive.
Oil prices have slipped as Iran outlined a Qatar-brokered proposal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days, provided Washington meets Tehran’s conditions. It offers some hope of easing energy supply disruptions, although an agreement has not yet been reached.
Meanwhile, gold’s sharp selloff is raising an interesting question for traders : Could the correction eventually offer a buying opportunity, or is it still too early? Our latest analysis explores a conditional gold futures long idea, with an emphasis on patience and managing downside risk.
And in technology, Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett is making the case for buying tech bonds after their relative performance against investment-grade bonds reached a 30-year low. The enormous financing requirements of the AI industry are changing the investment considerations for both creditors and shareholders.
These are three quite different market stories, but each raises a question about whether a recent development represents a meaningful change or simply a temporary adjustment.
That brings me to Bitcoin, where a recovering price is approaching an especially interesting technical test for day traders today.
Bitcoin rebounds after a sharp breakdown. What comes next?
Bitcoin is attempting to recover from its latest selloff, but the short-term technical picture remains vulnerable.
On October 29, Bitcoin traded around 81,971 USDT before falling to approximately 76,326 USDT on October 30, a decline of nearly 6.9%.
Since then, buyers have managed to produce a recovery with improving short-term price action.
On the Binance BTC/USDT spot four-hour chart, the latest completed candle closed around 78,354 USDT, slightly above a declining moving reference near 78,226.
The newest candle was still developing at approximately 78,463 USDT in the November 2, 01:56 UTC snapshot.
That is encouraging for buyers, but it does not yet establish that Bitcoin has reversed its recent bearish structure.
And this is where the chart becomes particularly interesting.
Why the $79,000 Bitcoin area deserves attention today
Bitcoin previously traded within a rising pitchfork channel, a technical structure that identifies a potential path for price using three reference lines.
Following the latest selloff, Bitcoin broke below that channel.
Now, with price recovering, the former lower boundary is sitting around 79,000 USDT, sloping slightly downward.
I see this boundary as a potential magnet for price, at least metaphorically. But that does not mean Bitcoin must reach it.
What interests me considerably more is what might happen if it does.
The area also has some historical significance. Bitcoin’s October 24 low was near 79,221 USDT, adding another price reference around the broader 79,000 region.
Could the same channel that previously helped support Bitcoin’s recovery now become resistance?
That would be a familiar market phenomenon: former support turning into resistance after a breakdown.
If Bitcoin approaches 79,000 but struggles to sustain trading above the former channel boundary, sellers may regain confidence.
A rejection followed by declining four-hour closes would strengthen the interpretation that the current rebound is corrective rather than the beginning of a more durable recovery.
For day traders, that would put the 77,500-77,000 region back into focus, with the October 30 low near 76,326 becoming an important downside reference if selling intensifies.
There is also a possibility that Bitcoin never reaches 79,000. If the recovery stalls below the channel and fresh selling produces lower four-hour closes, that failure would itself be worth watching.
What if Bitcoin breaks back above $79,000?
The alternative scenario could be more encouraging for Bitcoin bulls.
Suppose Bitcoin moves above the former channel boundary, completes a four-hour candle back inside the structure, and subsequently holds that boundary on a pullback.
That would suggest the recent breakdown is losing some of its bearish significance.
Such a development could shift attention toward approximately 79,850 USDT, followed by the 80,500-80,600 USDT region.
Those are potential areas to monitor, not guaranteed upside targets.
Even a successful reclaim would not automatically establish a broader bullish trend reversal. Buyers would still need to demonstrate that the recovery can sustain itself.
And there is an important distinction between briefly crossing a price level and actually reclaiming it.
A short-lived move above the channel followed by an immediate decline could be another failed recovery attempt.
A completed candle, subsequent retest and follow-through would provide more meaningful evidence.
Bitcoin forecast today: Watch the reaction, not just the price
For day traders following Bitcoin on November 2, I believe the most interesting opportunity may come from patiently observing the next test rather than trying to predict every movement toward it.
The two principal areas I am watching are:
Around 79,000 USDT: Can Bitcoin reclaim the broken channel and hold above it, or will former support become resistance?
Around 77,500-77,000 USDT: If the rebound fails, can buyers defend this lower region, or does attention shift back toward the October 30 low around 76,326?
Shorter-term price action may provide early clues, but a brief crossing of a boundary should not be confused with a confirmed four-hour recovery.
There is also a broader trading lesson here.
Sometimes, a technical channel provides its most useful information after price has broken outside it.
The subsequent retest can help distinguish a market genuinely recovering its previous structure from one where sellers are simply allowing a temporary rebound.
Bitcoin’s approach toward 79,000 would be interesting.
Whether Bitcoin can reclaim that area and stay above it may be considerably more important.
I also went trick or treating with Bitcoin on Halloween so you can check out some possible targets there .
Chart basis: Binance BTC/USDT spot, four-hour timeframe. Snapshot November 1, 2026, approximately 20:56 EST (November 2, 01:56 UTC). All quoted prices and chart references are historical observations from that snapshot, not live prices. Educational market analysis, not a guaranteed forecast.
This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.
