Oil prices climbed on Friday as renewed threats of US strikes against Iran and attacks near vital Middle Eastern shipping routes revived fears of supply disruption.
Brent’s expiring December contract rose 1.04% to $116.08 a barrel at 03:23 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate advanced 1.34% to $103.37. The more actively traded January Brent contract reached $112.19.
The gains followed reports that senior military officials had discussed further action with President Donald Trump, alongside a fresh tanker attack in the Strait of Hormuz.
Diplomatic contacts with Tehran offered a counterweight, leaving traders weighing whether crude could reach $120 or retreat.
Oil prices today: Trump considers Iran options as traders price in escalation
Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of US Central Command, briefed Trump at the White House on Thursday about potential military operations against Iran, according to The Wall Street Journal. Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs Chairman Dan Caine attended.
Separately, US officials warned regional allies to prepare for possible strikes after the November 3 midterm elections and retaliation against energy infrastructure.
That uncertainty is supporting crude prices. Any renewed attacks could provoke a response affecting oil production, ports or the Strait of Hormuz, even if current exports continue.
Yet Washington is simultaneously exploring diplomacy . Vice President JD Vance has contacted Iranian officials, although Tehran has not agreed to revised peace terms.
“Persistent headlines of deal talks are weighing on the crude oil market,” TD Securities strategist Ryan McKay said, according to The Business Times.
McKay sees little prospect of an agreement before the elections.
Brent crude oil price: Tanker attack keeps the Strait of Hormuz in focus
A tanker transiting the Strait of Hormuz was attacked late on Thursday after a small boat attached two explosive devices to its hull, according to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency.
The perpetrators were not immediately identified.
The narrow waterway carries Gulf oil and refined products to global customers. Attacks can increase insurance premiums and shipping costs, delay cargoes and raise the price buyers pay for reliable deliveries, even without shutting production.
Yemen’s Houthi movement also claimed attacks on Saudi energy sites, including the Ras Tanura and Rabigh refineries and an Aramco facility at Abqaiq. Those claims do not independently establish damage. A Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted a missile.
“Doubts of a viable diplomatic pathway are keeping oil prices elevated,” MST Marquee energy researcher Saul Kavonic told Reuters, pointing to fears of further escalation.
Brent was heading for an October gain of nearly 11%, its fourth consecutive monthly advance, while WTI was on course to rise around 14%.
The price increases underline how disruptions to transport, not just wells and refineries, can tighten available supply.
Trump Iran strikes: Will Brent reach $120?
Goldman Sachs warned in September that intensifying attacks on Middle Eastern shipping could push oil to $120 a barrel. Its alternative scenario envisaged $90 if regional exports normalised.
UBS expects Brent near $110 at year-end, arguing that supply constraints may persist even if fighting eases, as Gulf production has not yet fully recovered.
“Global inventories have fallen sharply, with pledged strategic oil reserves releases largely completed,” UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said, according to The National.
That matters because depleted inventories leave buyers with less protection against another interruption. Restoring tanker movements and rebuilding stockpiles would also take time.
For retail investors using investment apps to track energy stocks and oil-linked funds, the uncertainty adds another layer of risk as geopolitical developments drive sharp price swings.
A renewed military offensive or another serious shipping incident could lift Brent towards $120. Conversely, credible negotiations and safer transit could reduce the premium embedded in crude prices.
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