Could Jensen Huang really lose the executive leadership of the company he founded?
And if that happens, what would it mean for Nvidia’s stock, which has enjoyed one of the most historic dream runs under his leadership?
Nvidia shares rebounded more than 4% on Wednesday , fuelled partly by CoreWeave’s earnings, which lifted sentiment across the AI trade.
Retail and institutional investors also flocked to buy the dip as shares remain down more than 10% in the last five sessions, seemingly unfazed by the uncertainty surrounding Huang’s future at the company and persistent questions about whether he was targeted by a foreign intelligence operation and divulged company or national secrets.
The latter is the subject of the investigation Nvidia is conducting into its CEO.
The former, however, has already become a scenario analysts are considering when assessing the stock’s future trajectory.
“The odds of a CEO transition are increasing into 2027. We think the odds favor an outsider being hired as CEO versus someone promoted from within,” Baird said on Wednesday.
Dan Ives, partner and senior managing director at Yorkville Ives, said there was a 15% chance Huang would be removed as CEO in this “black eye moment”, while the probability of him staying was 85%.
On Kalshi, speculators put the odds of Huang leaving by 2027 at just 17%. Those odds rise to 30% by 2028 and 35% by 2029.
However, they see a 75% probability that he will depart by 2031.
On Polymarket, speculators place the odds of Huang resigning or being forced out by the end of March 2027 at just one in four.
“Even if Jensen Huang is found not to have discussed any confidential information with the woman in question, the affair is not a good look for a company that prides itself on family-based cultural values,” wrote Daniel Coatsworth, head of markets at AJ Bell .
“It’s plausible that Jensen Huang might decide to step down as CEO if he thinks the incident has tarnished the company’s reputation, as well as his own. Or the board might decide he has to go,” he said.
Can Nvidia afford to lose Huang?
As has often been said, particularly in the wake of the recent controversy, Jensen Huang is no ordinary CEO.
He founded the company and helped make it virtually indispensable to the AI boom, to the extent that Huang has almost become synonymous with the industry itself.
Over the past two to three years, as AI development has accelerated, Huang has been ubiquitous, emerging as one of its biggest evangelists while turning Nvidia into the unofficial exchequer of the AI boom.
As Stacy Rasgon, an analyst at Bernstein, put it earlier, “Huang is Nvidia”.
He sets the company’s long-term strategy and direction and personally pulls many of its strings.
Then there is the company’s operational structure.
Huang is known for running a tight ship at Nvidia through an unusually flat management structure, with approximately 60 direct reports.
This contrasts with the average CEO, who may have only about 10 direct reports.
Huang has said in previous interviews that this structure prevents the company from developing unnecessary layers of management and keeps information flowing freely.
His leadership style had, until now, been a subject of study as Nvidia leapfrogged tech behemoths to become the world’s most valuable company, a position it continues to exchange with Apple from time to time.
The potential downside of Huang’s unusual management style and Nvidia’s lack of succession planning had rarely been questioned until now, when investors are being forced to imagine a company without him and consider whether the chipmaker can afford to lose its founder.
“Nvidia can survive without Huang, but an abrupt departure would be particularly difficult given its organisational structure. He has approximately 60 direct reports, and there is no publicly identified successor. His roughly 3.6% stake also carries no special voting rights that would guarantee his position against the board,” Manuel Pinto, head of analysis at XTB Spain, told Invezz .
Pinto added that while the company has assets that extend well beyond its founder, including CUDA, its engineering teams, systems and commercial relationships, Huang brings together “technological vision, government negotiations and the ability to coordinate investment.”
“Nvidia can replace its CEO; the difficulty would be replacing all the functions and relationships concentrated in Huang at the same time,” he said.
“If the woman under investigation were confirmed to have acted for a foreign power, it would still be necessary to establish separately what Huang knew, how he acted and whether information was compromised. In assessing his future, the crucial distinction would be between having been targeted by an operation and having engaged in conduct that compromised the company,” Pinto said.
Why Huang’s potential departure could hit NVDA particularly hard
The speculation over whether Huang will continue to lead Nvidia raises a more pertinent question for investors: what would happen to the stock without him at the helm?
Any CEO change carries more downside than upside risk, particularly when the outgoing chief executive is credited with delivering significant growth for the company.
When Steve Jobs, a visionary Huang is often compared with, resigned as Apple’s CEO in 2011, the company’s stock fell 3%, wiping $10 billion off its market value.
However, Jobs’s departure had been anticipated for some time, and his successor, Tim Cook, was highly respected.
Investors believed Apple would remain in safe hands.
Cook also delivered, with Apple’s stock rising more than 1,900% during his tenure.
Meanwhile, Chipotle’s stock fell as much as 10% when the company announced in 2024 that CEO Brian Niccol would leave to take the top job at Starbucks.
By last month, the stock had declined more than 35% since his departure.
Niccol became Chipotle’s CEO in March 2018, and the company’s stock rose more than 770% during his tenure.
When it comes to Huang, however, the stakes are significantly higher.
Under his leadership, Nvidia has delivered a cumulative share-price return of more than 700,000%.
Revenue is expected to surpass $400 billion this fiscal year, compared with less than $27 billion four years ago, while gross margins remain above 70%, according to Pinto.
“Commentators say that Apple survived the loss of Steve Jobs, but this is different,” David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation, told Invezz .
“No doubt many investors will shrug their shoulders and say: so what? Nvidia still produces those GPUs vital for AI infrastructure, so everything’s good. But this scandal comes at a time when there are more questions than ever over the AI investment thesis,” he said.
Even before the controversy engulfed the company and its shares, chip stocks had been on weak footing as investors became increasingly relentless in scrutinising corporate AI spending and questioning whether it would generate sufficient returns.
Some damning reports, including one released by Gartner last month, have warned of a difficult future.
More than $3.5 trillion in AI infrastructure spending could be exposed to impairment by the end of 2030 if AI providers continue at their current pace of capital expenditure, the report has said.
Then, as Democrats seized Congress last week and concerns about a slowdown in data centre construction gained momentum, a brutal sell-off followed on November 5.
Nvidia fell 9.26% , shedding $18.53 per share in a single session and wiping out its gains for 2026.
Despite Wednesday’s 4% gain, Nvidia remains down 22% over the past month and about 7% for the year.
“Huang’s bad personal decision-making may just be the straw that breaks the camel’s back. And if it can be proved that Ms Huang has been spying, then buying the dip may prove to be a disastrous strategy,” Morrison added.
Baird downgrades NVDA to Neutral; mentions uncertainties around CEO tenure
The controversy is unfolding ahead of Nvidia’s earnings report, due on November 17.
Baird has already downgraded the chip giant to Neutral from Buy and cut its price target to $200 from $500.
The new target represents just 15% upside from Wednesday’s trading levels and accounts for uncertainty surrounding Huang’s tenure.
“Downgrading to Neutral until uncertainties regarding US government action likely resulting from the upcoming congressional hearing are lifted, US government investigations reach their conclusions, revenue impact from risk channel near-term adjustments along with potential charges is quantified, and uncertainties around CEO tenure clear,” Baird’s Tristan Gerra wrote.
In Baird’s view, the US government could respond by tightening export controls on advanced AI chips amid concerns about the “Southeast Asia data center loophole”.
This refers to the possibility that Chinese technology companies could access restricted Nvidia GPUs through business dealings with companies in countries such as Singapore and Malaysia.
“We believe low-level shipping is taking place into Asia-based warehouses with some inventories awaiting China demand,” Gerra said. “We estimate this could translate into a $5B write down.”
The Information has reported that Alice Huang helped facilitate at least $7.5 billion in shipments of Nvidia chips to Chinese firms by building a network of companies across China and Singapore to obtain the chips.
Morgan Stanley has also removed Nvidia from its top-pick list after the stock fell more than 25% since being named a top pick a month ago.
However, analyst Joseph Moore maintained an Overweight rating and a bullish $300 price target.
BofA Global Research also removed Nvidia from its US 1 List, alongside Micron and Lam Research, although it maintained Buy ratings on all three semiconductor companies.
Mizuho lowered its price target on Nvidia to $250 from $315 while maintaining an Outperform rating.
What could happen to NVDA if Huang ceases to be CEO?
Ives believes that if Huang were removed as CEO, Nvidia would be “worth a lot less (25%-30%) as a company/stock and would change the future direction of the company and create a dramatically different competitive environment around AI GPUs globally especially for China.”
Morgan Stanley’s Moore acknowledged that near-term uncertainty would persist, given the importance of CEO Jensen Huang’s leadership to the company’s strategic direction.
Pinto said Nvidia’s valuation reflects how sharply uncertainty has increased.
The stock’s 12-month forward P/E ratio is close to 13 times, compared with 17.7 times for the S&P 500 and 23.6 times for consumer staples, marking its lowest multiple since 2013.
“That discount raises the question of whether the sell-off has gone too far, but it requires confidence that earnings forecasts are sustainable. A stock can look cheap because its price has fallen or because earnings estimates have yet to reflect all the risks,” he added.
According to Pinto, if allegations that Alice Huang was a Chinese spy and that Jensen Huang potentially divulged information turn out to be true, there would be two potential channels of impact on Nvidia shares.
“The first would be a lower valuation multiple as investors price in greater leadership uncertainty. The second, potentially more lasting, would be earnings revisions if trade restrictions, operational delays, or difficulties closing deals emerged. A credible and orderly transition would be essential to preventing a leadership crisis from damaging the business outlook.”
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