Losses pile up as spot selling takes over
Bitcoin holders realized more than $2 billion in losses over three days, according to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost. Daily realized losses ran between $657 million and $703 million. The weekly net realized profit and loss was still negative $191 million, which suggests other holders booked gains during the same stretch. The selling picked up after Bitcoin fell below $80,000 and is nearing levels seen in early August.
The spot market tells a similar story. The 30-day moving average of Bitcoin’s spot net volume delta has turned negative on Binance and Coinbase. At the end of August, the reading was positive $64.8 million on Binance and $64.3 million on Coinbase. By Nov. 5, it had flipped to negative $28 million and $9.4 million. Coinbase weakened first in October, while Binance held up for a while. Now both venues show more aggressive selling than buying.
Tech selloff adds to crypto stress
On Friday, Bitcoin briefly dropped below $75,000 as a sharp selloff in US technology stocks spread into digital assets. The S&P 500 fell 4.36% and the Nasdaq Composite lost 5.52%. Concerns about artificial intelligence valuations and political uncertainty ahead of the US midterms weighed on risk appetite. The move erased much of Wednesday’s relief rally and showed how quickly Bitcoin can follow equities lower.
Bitcoin’s issues go beyond stocks. CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno pointed to declining Bitcoin demand and contracting stablecoin liquidity. Without stronger spot buying or fresh capital inflows, further selling may meet thin demand. I think that is the key risk here: the market can absorb losses, but it has less room to absorb them without buyers.
Jobs report raises the stakes
The US economy added 165,000 jobs in October, more than double the 65,000 expected. Unemployment fell to 4.1% from 4.2%, and average hourly earnings rose 0.4%. Revisions added 84,000 jobs for August and September. Futures traders raised the odds of a December quarter-point Fed hike to about 80%, from 75%, according to Reuters. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to around 4.88% early Friday.
Higher yields can weaken demand for Bitcoin by making interest-bearing assets more attractive. Much of the December move was already priced in, though. Fabian Dori of Sygnum said investors should watch longer-term Treasury yields for signs of tighter financial conditions.
Bitget analyst Lewis Huang flagged $76,500 as near-term support. Darkfost put the more important line at $75,000. A sustained break below that level could open the way toward $70,000, where many investors previously bought. That cluster might draw buyers, but continued selling could overwhelm them. Spot activity and stablecoin liquidity will likely decide whether Bitcoin stabilizes or tests $70,000.
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