Gold price has managed to regain some momentum this week, trading at $4,122 per ounce on November 5. However, major financial institutions remain uncertain over the precious metal’s prospects heading into 2027.
For example, while JPMorgan forecasted gold to reach $6,300 by the end of 2027 earlier this week, recent fund withdrawals and concerns about further Federal Reserve tightening raise questions about the reality of such a high figure.
Indeed, even Greg Shearer, the bank’s head of Base & Precious Metals, acknowledged that gold has recently struggled to attract investors, claiming the asset is “stuck in a bit of a technical no-man’s land:”
“Gold is stuck in a bit of a technical no-man’s land, trudging above the 200-day moving average around $4,340/oz and capped for now below the 50-day moving average at $4,730/oz,” Shearer said.
Gold vs. silver six-month chart. Source: Goldprice.org
What could help push the gold price forecast 2027?
Shearer also added that concerns about the Federal Reserve potentially responding to energy-driven inflation with additional interest rate increases have pushed gold onto the back burner for many investors.
“Amid this sideways plod, and with growing worries that the Fed might have to respond to energy-driven inflation with hikes, gold is on the back burner for most investors at the moment,” the analyst added.
Nevertheless, JPMorgan believes several structural factors could eventually revive demand. Most notably, the bank singled out concerns about U.S. fiscal sustainability, currency purchasing power, geopolitical issues, and uncertainty surrounding American economic policy as a whole.
The bank also highlighted the potential for renewed central bank buying, particularly as countries seek to diversify their foreign exchange reserves away from the US dollar. However, the bullish outlook does not eliminate the possibility of further losses in the near term.
Gold’s outlook uncertain
Indeed, Bank of America’s (BofA) fund-flow data showed that gold funds recorded $1.7 billion in withdrawals during the week ended October 28, marking their first weekly outflow since July 2026.
The development contrasts with the World Gold Council’s September exchange-traded fund report , which recorded continued inflows despite falling prices. However, it’s noteworthy that the council suggested that some investors were treating the pullback as an opportunity to build or maintain strategic positions.
Global gold ETF flows by region. Source: Gold.org
Like JPMorgan, Crédit Agricole also expects gold to recover over the longer term, predicting gold to reach $5,000 an ounce in December 2026 and $5,500 by December 2027. Its bullish thesis largely rests on continued central bank diversification away from the U.S. dollar.
“We maintain a constructive long-term outlook on gold from current levels. Central banks still see XAU as a primary tool to reduce their exposure to the USD given the attempts by the US to weaponise the currency,” the bank wrote.
What could derail gold’s recovery?
One of the key takeaways from the gold predictions above is that the outlook remains vulnerable to changes in U.S. monetary policy. JPMorgan identified a scenario involving resilient U.S. economic growth, persistent inflation, and additional Federal Reserve rate increases as the most significant downside risk.
Such developments could encourage sustained withdrawals from gold exchange-traded funds in the West, creating another obstacle for prices, especially if central bank purchases also lose momentum.
Ultimately, the forecasts suggest that major financial institutions still see considerable upside potential for gold, although their targets differ. However, the immediate outlook is considerably less certain.
Central bank diversification, fiscal concerns, and geopolitical uncertainty could all support another rally over the coming year, but persistent inflation and continued fund withdrawals could delay that recovery or undermine the bullish forecasts altogether.
Featured image via Shutterstock
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