Bitcoin is showing a technical warning that has preceded two sharp drops this year. On the daily chart, price has fallen below both bundles of the Guppy Multiple Moving Average, and the short-term bundle has crossed under the long-term one. The GMMA groups moving averages into two sets. The short set tracks trader activity. The long set tracks investor sentiment. When the short set drops below the long set, it suggests sellers are taking control.
Why the crossover matters
A crossover by itself is not a full sell signal. Trader sentiment can change fast. What gives the setup more weight is whether the long-term bundle starts to lean the same way. Right now, it does. The long-term lines are squeezing together and starting to slope lower. That points to investors settling on a price and easing off aggressive buying. With both groups leaning lower, the bearish reading is stronger.
Past signals and failed calls
The market has seen this before. A similar setup in late May came before a drop below $60,000 in early June. A crossover in late January also came ahead of a fall from about $90,000 to near $62,000. But the indicator is not reliable on its own. Bearish confirmations in August and September 2025 failed, and prices turned higher soon after. That history matters. It means the current signal deserves attention, not blind trust.
Other pressure on bitcoin
The chart signal is not the only issue. Bitcoin ETFs have seen sharp outflows, and there are signs of weaker US demand. Options activity also shows more interest in downside protection. That combination suggests some traders are exiting positions or hedging against deeper losses. Seasonality offers a counterpoint. Past data shows bitcoin often rallies after midterms, though past patterns do not guarantee the next move.
For now, the next few days may be the real test. If the long-term bundle keeps turning lower alongside the short-term bundle, the bearish case gets stronger. If price reverses and the long-term lines flatten, the signal may fade like it did in August and September. Bitcoin is at $76,613.13 at the time of writing, and the market is waiting to see which side wins.
The post Bitcoin GMMA turns bearish, echoing signals before June and February drops appeared first on TheCryptoUpdates .
