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Summary:
Oil fell, with Brent down around $2 a barrel, as Iran and Qatar held a third day of talks on a plan Tehran says could reopen Hormuz within two days if the US meets its conditions
Attacks on shipping continued, including a tanker hit by two projectiles in the northern Gulf off Saudi Arabia, with at least 10 incidents reported across the region since October 31
Goldman Sachs raised its December Brent forecast to $105 from $90, citing high disruption risk from the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine conflicts
Chinese stocks rallied after reports that regulators will meet to discuss market support tools, and as the central bank began daily overnight operations at 1.25%
The yen weakened despite Finance Minister Katayama’s warnings against disorderly moves; the Canadian and New Zealand dollars also lost ground, while other major currencies were range-bound
The South Korean Kospi led regional gains, up 2.8%, ahead of Tuesday’s RBA decision, where a hike is widely expected
Oil and the Gulf
Oil prices fell in Asian trade, with Brent down around $2 a barrel, as attention stayed on talks in Doha and whether they make enough progress to persuade President Donald Trump to hold off on renewed strikes on Iran. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Qatari mediators had persuaded Tehran to shorten its plan for reopening the Strait of Hormuz to two days: on day one the US would implement a set of measures, and on day two shipping would be restored. Iran’s conditions include sanctions relief, restored oil waivers, a reduced US military presence and recognition of new shipping routes. Washington has not responded publicly, and Trump said he was in no hurry.
The market is likely to keep pricing some prospect of peace while negotiations continue. However, the wide gap between Washington and Tehran, along with continuing attacks on shipping, may limit how deep and durable any relief-driven sell-off proves to be.
The security picture at sea deteriorated further. The UK Maritime Trade Operations centre reported that a tanker was struck by two unknown projectiles 72 nautical miles east of Ras al Khafji, Saudi Arabia, far from Hormuz. All crew were accounted for. Maritime security reports point to at least 10 incidents across the Gulf, Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman since October 31. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards claimed to have hit two crude tankers on an unauthorised route, a vessel was reported possibly ablaze off Oman, and satellite imagery showed a leaking tanker trailing oil toward Oman’s coast.
Supply risks were also flagged beyond the Gulf. Ukraine resumed drone attacks on Russian refineries over the weekend, and Goldman Sachs raised its December Brent forecast to $105 a barrel from $90, building a 1 million barrel per day disruption allowance into its 2027 base case. OPEC+ kept December output targets unchanged.
China
Chinese stocks rallied strongly. Reports that the People’s Bank of China will meet the financial and securities regulators and major banks on Monday to study improving a relending programme for share buybacks lifted sentiment after the CSI 300’s worst month in more than a decade. At the midday break, the Shanghai Composite was up 1.16%, the Shenzhen Component 2.39% and the ChiNext 3.28%.
The PBOC also began daily overnight reverse repo operations at a fixed 1.25%, below the 1.4% seven-day rate, in a step toward making the overnight rate its main policy anchor. Data released over the weekend and on Monday gave a mixed picture of China’s factories. The official NBS manufacturing PMI slipped back into contraction at 49.3 in October from 50.1, missing forecasts, while the non-manufacturing index fell to 49.7. In contrast, the private RatingDog manufacturing PMI, which leans toward export-oriented firms, held at 52.0, beating expectations, as output grew at its fastest pace since April. However, manufacturers cut selling prices amid intense competition.
Japan
The yen lost ground even as Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said a joint currency statement with the US remained in effect and that Tokyo would act against disorderly moves. She declined to comment on specific levels. Japan’s manufacturing PMI eased to a seven-month low of 53.3 but remained in solid expansion, with input cost inflation picking up.
Australia
Markets price a high chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise rates on Tuesday, with 31 of 32 economists in a Reuters poll expecting a hike to 4.85%. Deutsche Bank is the lone major forecaster tipping a hold. Australia’s manufacturing PMI held at 49.6, in contraction for a second month.
FX
Apart from the weaker yen, the Canadian dollar lost ground after weekend comments from Trump and Prime Minister Mark Carney on a prospective trade deal, which Trump said exists in “concept” but gave no details on. The New Zealand dollar also slipped. Other major currencies traded in narrow ranges.
Regional equities
China Shanghai Composite: +1.2%
Hong Kong Hang Seng: +0.6%
Japan Nikkei: +0.4%
South Korea Kospi: +2.8%
South Korea Kosdaq: +1.6%
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
