TL;DR
Galaxy says Bitcoin’s bear market ended in June and now offers an accumulation opportunity, citing improved technical structure and reduced selling pressure.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have added 87,000 BTC since the June low, which Galaxy interprets as directional demand rather than leveraged carry activity.
A later market reading placed Bitcoin near $80,080, while Jason Calacanis offered a bearish view, predicting continued ETF outflows and a possible return to $57,000.
Galaxy Research says Bitcoin is in an accumulation phase after its June low, arguing that selling pressure has eased while ETF ownership has recovered. In the initial research snapshot, BTC stood at $81,391 on October 22, 39% above its June 30 low. A later market reading placed Bitcoin near $80,080 . Galaxy’s thesis is that Bitcoin’s bear market ended in June and current levels offer an attractive accumulation window , reinforcing attention on Bitcoin’s long-term monetary thesis .
ETF Holdings and Technical Structure Support Galaxy’s Thesis
Galaxy’s technical case begins with Bitcoin reclaiming its 50-week moving average after spending 44 weeks below it. The week ending October 18 marked a fifth consecutive weekly close above that level, while the June low had tested the 200-week average. Galaxy interprets the sustained reclaim as evidence that the cycle low may already be established rather than a temporary rebound. That view echoes Alex Thorn’s earlier focus on Bitcoin’s 50-week moving average .
ETF positioning provides another pillar. Galaxy said U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF holdings fell only 11% from their peak to the July trough, even as Bitcoin declined 53%, and have since added 87,000 BTC from the June low. The firm reads that rebound as directional demand rather than leveraged basis activity , particularly as leveraged-fund shorts declined. Recent Bitcoin ETF inflows led by BlackRock and Fidelity also illustrate continuing institutional participation, although Galaxy noted October flows were flat.
The broader institutional picture is mixed rather than uniformly bullish. Reporting institutions reduced spot ETF exposure between September 2025 and June 2026, but Galaxy said much of the selling came from multi-strategy, macro and basis-trading firms, while other investors added exposure. Galaxy argues that weaker hands exited while a more stable ownership base remained , consistent with September’s $2.65 billion of Bitcoin ETF inflows and continued demand from wealth platforms, sovereign funds, advisors and individuals.
A brutal year for Bitcoin is just getting started.
Give me three minutes to explain why you should dump it now.
Outflows from ETFs are signal and will continue.
We will test the 57k low again in the next 12 months.
Why?
Because there are far too many dynamic places to… pic.twitter.com/fK8zRNvPU0
— @jason (@Jason) October 27, 2026
Galaxy also identified conditions that would undermine its thesis, including a weekly close below the 50-week average near $76,540 that is not recovered within a month, or ETF holdings falling below their July trough. A contrasting view appeared in Jason Calacanis’s October 27 post, where he argued ETF outflows could continue and Bitcoin could revisit $57,000. The accumulation call therefore remains an investment thesis, not confirmation that Bitcoin has entered a sustained bull market, despite the improving technical and institutional backdrop described today.
