For oil, the post cuts both ways. A lower risk of renewed US strikes should erode some of the war premium that pushed Brent above $120 in April. But the status quo the Gulf states reportedly favour keeps Iranian crude off the market. Tehran has also tied reopening the Strait of Hormuz to the blockade being lifted. That leaves prices with a supply-driven floor even as the escalation risk fades. Without a deal that restores normal Hormuz traffic, dips on de-escalation headlines may struggle to run far.
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Trump is talking down the risk of renewed strikes on Iran but not the pressure, with Gulf allies said to favour a blockade by land and sea over a return to war.
Summary:
Trump said renewed US military action against Iran seems “quite unlikely” after a call with Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani
He said Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait and others prefer the status quo: the US naval blockade plus the new Iron Gate land effort
All sides agree Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon, which Trump called non-negotiable; he said the US stays ready to act if conditions change
US Central Command set up Task Force Iron Gate on Saturday to disrupt Iranian weapons and sanctioned-goods transit by land and across the Caspian Sea
CENTCOM says the sea blockade has prevented more than $25 billion of Iranian crude exports in recent months
Trump cited “positive momentum” toward ending the conflict
US President Donald Trump said renewed military action against Iran now looks “quite unlikely,” after a call with Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani. The signal is that Washington will keep squeezing Tehran through blockades rather than fresh strikes.
In a post on his Truth Social platform on Monday, Trump said Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait and other regional states would prefer to keep the status quo. He defined that as continuing the US naval blockade of Iranian ports alongside the newly launched Iron Gate effort, which together cover Iran by land and sea. Trump said all parties agree Iran cannot be allowed a nuclear weapon and called that non-negotiable. He added that the US remains ready to act if conditions in the region change, but said he sees positive momentum toward ending the conflict.
US Central Command announced the Iron Gate initiative on Saturday. It is a task force of about 20 civilian and military staff based in Tampa, Florida. Its job is to disrupt Iranian movement of weapons, dual-use technology and sanctioned goods across Iran’s land borders and the Caspian Sea. CENTCOM said the sea blockade, which covers Iranian ports on the Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, has stopped Iran exporting more than $25 billion of crude in recent months.
The message points two ways for oil. A lower risk of a return to large-scale strikes, which helped drive Brent above $120 in April, chips away at the war premium. But the status quo the Gulf states reportedly favour keeps Iranian barrels off the market. Tehran has also made lifting the blockade a condition for reopening the Strait of Hormuz to normal traffic. Brent rebounded to around $98 on Friday from a two-month low, as tanker attacks in the Gulf offset expectations of de-escalation after the US midterm elections.
For traders, the post points to a long holding pattern rather than a resolution. Without a deal that reopens Hormuz, supply concerns are likely to keep a floor under prices even as the threat of renewed escalation fades.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
