Low-carbon investment is rising, but the transition is not moving fast enough to keep warming below 2°C, according to TotalEnergies’ Energy Outlook published on November 2, 2026. The eighth edition maps global energy scenarios through 2060, with sharply different regional paths as governments balance emissions, affordability and supply security.
Key takeaways
Low-carbon energy investment reached $2,100 billion in 2025.
TotalEnergies’ three scenarios imply warming of 1.8°C–2.8°C by 2100.
The Hormuz crisis has reinforced energy security priorities.
The United States, China and Europe follow increasingly different transition paths.
The company expects global oil demand to peak between 2035 and 2040 , Aurélien Hamelle, President for Strategy & Sustainability, told reporters. Last year’s forecast envisaged demand rising until 2040 before gradually declining. Faster growth in electric vehicle sales offers scope for a quicker fall.
TotalEnergies’ energy outlook shows demand rising as fossil growth slows
Demand for coal, oil, gas and electricity continues to increase, but fossil fuel consumption and associated emissions are growing more slowly while global economic growth exceeds 3%, TotalEnergies said . It describes an energy system using less energy and emitting less CO2 for each unit of wealth created.
Low-carbon energy investment, encompassing end-use electrification, rose by 75% from $1,200 billion in 2015 to $2,100 billion in 2025 . The company also says more than half the world’s population still lacks sufficient energy access to improve education, health and wealth creation.
Globally, China is responsible for roughly 60% of solar panel additions, 70% of wind turbines and 60% of electric car sales . It also exports low-carbon technologies widely. Electricity’s share of global final energy demand has risen by 1.3% annually since 2000; in 2025, additional low-carbon sources covered the entire increase in electricity demand.
Hormuz crisis puts resilience alongside decarbonization
The 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis has tested energy system resilience and brought supply security to the forefront, TotalEnergies said. Its response framework combines domestic energy development with diversified fossil fuel supplies and investment in storage and transport infrastructure.
According to the company, the crisis could also speed up the transition, with electric car sales climbing in Asia, Latin America and Europe since the second quarter of 2026, alongside rising biofuel blending requirements. Domestically produced coal nevertheless remains essential to Asian electricity systems.
Hamelle described a “stunning acceleration” in low-carbon technology between the second quarters of 2025 and 2026. He said the developments support the transition but do not deliver sufficient acceleration to limit warming below 2°C.
Three scenarios produce different warming outcomes
TotalEnergies’ Energy Outlook sets out Trends, Momentum and Rupture scenarios, with estimated warming by 2100 ranging from 1.8°C to 2.8°C . Their assumptions differ on government climate ambition and international cooperation.
Trends extends current policies, technology development and consumer behavior, producing estimated warming of 2.6°C–2.8°C. Grid constraints, geopolitical tensions and costs limit deployment. Petroleum demand plateaus during the 2030s before declining slowly; gas demand grows before stabilizing in the 2040s. OECD countries miss carbon neutrality in 2050, while China approaches it in 2060.
Momentum assumes OECD countries approach carbon neutrality in 2050 and China in 2060, producing warming of 2.3°C–2.4°C. It combines greater electrification, reduced coal use, natural gas as a transition fuel and low-carbon fuels for harder-to-electrify sectors. Insufficient low-carbon investment leaves fossil fuels supplying half of energy demand growth in India and the rest of the world.
Rupture works backward from a 2050 endpoint consistent with warming below 2°C, yielding 1.8°C–1.9°C by 2100. It requires faster reductions in coal-fired power, deeper electrification and stronger multilateral cooperation. TotalEnergies considers it currently out of reach amid geopolitical rivalries.
Regional paths diverge across the US, China and Europe
TotalEnergies projects increasingly different regional energy mixes, shaped by domestic resources, electrification and investment needs.
The United States achieved energy independence through shale oil and gas, becoming a net gas exporter in 2017 and a petroleum products exporter in 2020. The outlook projects fossil fuels supplying around 60% of primary energy in 2060, against 80% today.
China’s renewable expansion, nuclear construction and more flexible coal plants reduce coal’s projected primary energy share from around 60% in 2025 to 25% in 2060. Road transport electrification reduces oil’s share from around 20% to 10% over that period.
The European Union continues decarbonizing electricity but faces major grid investment needs, industrial competitiveness pressures and public resistance to additional costs. TotalEnergies projects fossil fuels still supplying around 60% of EU primary energy in 2035.
Article produced with the assistance of artificial intelligence and reviewed by the editorial team.
