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KOSPI jumps back above 5,100: is this a real recovery or a relief rally?

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South Korea’s KOSPI rebounded above 5,100 on Monday as investors bought battered semiconductor shares after last week’s market crash, although continued foreign selling cast doubt on the recovery.

The index gained 1.61% to 5,145.81 by 11:08 am in Seoul, having briefly fallen to 4,990.66. Samsung Electronics rose 3.29% and SK Hynix advanced 4.51%.

A rebound in US chip stocks and measures to prevent forced selling have steadied sentiment, but the question is whether buyers can sustain the rally through another volatile trading week.

Why is KOSPI rising today?

The KOSPI lost 11.7% last week amid fears that US midterm results could bring tougher rules for AI data centres. Those restrictions remain speculative, but they added to concerns about massive future AI spending.

Friday’s Wall Street recovery offered relief. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index climbed 4.21% after plunging 12.25% on Thursday. AMD surged 11.04%, Nvidia gained 2.78% and Micron Technology added 5.12%.

That rebound encouraged purchases of Samsung and SK Hynix, which had fallen 6.35% and 10.44%, respectively, on Friday.

Both supply memory used in AI servers, making their valuations sensitive to expectations for future data-centre investment.

Mirae Asset Securities strategist Seo Sang-young said bargain hunting and stronger US chip shares could support Korean stocks, according to Seoul Economic Daily. He nevertheless warned that foreign outflows and uncertainty over interest rates could keep volatility elevated.

The distinction matters, as fears that future data centres might be delayed are not evidence that existing customers have cancelled memory orders.

South Korea stock market today: Foreign selling persists

The strongest warning against calling a market bottom comes from overseas investors .

They sold a net 469.3 billion won of KOSPI shares by late Monday morning, while institutions bought 297.3 billion won and individuals purchased 68.7 billion won.

Foreigners sold roughly 10.4 trillion won last week, much of it in Samsung and SK Hynix.

Domestic investors have absorbed some selling, but sustained international withdrawals could quickly overwhelm a fragile recovery.

Authorities have also provided breathing room. A three-month waiver of the requirement for brokerages to maintain a 140% collateral ratio on margin loans took effect Monday.

It allows firms flexibility to adjust requirements or postpone forced share sales when leveraged accounts lose value.

The measure does not eliminate margin calls or guarantee higher prices. Its purpose is to prevent forced liquidations from accelerating a market decline.

Daishin Securities analyst Lee Kyung-min argued that shares below 5,300 offered opportunities because earnings forecasts had improved even as prices collapsed.

KOSPI index today: What would confirm a recovery?

The return above 5,100 is encouraging, but the KOSPI remains well below its June peak. A single session of bargain hunting cannot settle concerns about AI spending, regulation or borrowing costs.

Kiwoom Securities analyst Han Ji-young considers another succession of steep falls less likely without fresh negative developments, but warned that the rebound’s strength depends on economic data and AI-related earnings.

Tuesday’s US October inflation report could alter expectations for Federal Reserve interest rates.

Investors will also examine results from data-centre operator CoreWeave and chip-equipment supplier Applied Materials for clues about financing pressures and technology spending.

AI disclosure: AI tools assisted with research and drafting of this piece. An Invezz editor reviewed the facts, sources and wording before publication. Any opinions or analysis are Invezz’s, not those of an automated system.

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