TL;DR:
Developer Manyfest and contributor Bit Cat are designing a protocol without a central beneficiary on Kaspa’s base layer targeted for late 2026.
The proposal outlines the equal issuance of fund-backed binary tokens and a resolution-based reward scheme.
Creators issued technical warnings regarding the preliminary design due to liquidity manipulation risks in smaller markets.
Kaspa ecosystem developers have unveiled an initiative to deploy an ownerless, decentralized prediction market on the network’s base layer, targeting a mainnet rollout by late 2026.
The technical roadmap was outlined by developer Manyfest, identified in development forum records as Sivan Helfer . According to market data, Helfer has collaborated with contributor Bit Cat to translate a conceptual permissionless prediction proposal into an Argent-style application architecture.
TLDR- A fully open, decentralized and permissionless prediction market application on Kaspa.
In the last few months I have been working with @maxibitcat mapping and coding his proposal for a permissionless prediction market into an Argent app.
He proposed a voting resolution… pic.twitter.com/r8mhLj9Moy
— Manyfest (@manyfest_) November 11, 2026
The operational mechanism aims to eliminate central administrators, intermediaries, and corporate fees reserved for any single entity. According to technical forum posts by the team, the incentives generated from processing and validating the system’s operations would be directed to network miners.
The architecture allows any user to create contracts, trade tokens tied to specific outcomes, and participate in settlement resolution by running their own client code.
Protocol Issuance, Voting, and Settlement Structure
The preliminary model centers on binary outcome questions. According to technical specifications shared by the developers, the minting process would generate equal amounts of tokens representing opposing outcomes (YES and NO), fully backed by the funds committed when the market is created.
Secondary trading of these assets would take place across decentralized platforms compatible with the network’s infrastructure. Upon reaching the event’s designated expiration date, token holders would have a defined time window to cast their resolution votes.
Once the final outcome is determined through majority consensus among participants, holders of the winning tokens would be able to claim their corresponding payouts.
The technical design also integrates a complementary lottery-style mechanism. As Helfer explained, this scheme is intended to reward participants holding losing outcome tokens who nevertheless voted in alignment with the majority during the final outcome resolution.
Bit Cat stated that the foundational requirements for protocol stability demand that capital participation does not become overly concentrated and that there is a shared expectation that the true outcome will prevail. The contributor emphasized that these types of conditionally settled contracts serve risk management and hedging purposes, extending beyond conventional betting labels.
Security Warnings and Implementation Timeline
Despite the proposed mainnet schedule targeting the end of 2026, the developers themselves have characterized the current stage as an experimental phase subject to adjustments.
Helfer issued a technical warning regarding order vulnerability in low-liquidity markets. According to the developer’s statements, smaller markets could be susceptible to manipulation attempts under the current structure, which could result in capital losses for participants during early adoption stages.
The initiative comes amid an ongoing expansion of programmable capabilities within Kaspa . Network development logs document progress on indexing schemes for covenants and proposed asset standards, while parallel proposals—such as the draft for the KSD algorithmic stablecoin—remain under technical review.
The protocol proposal will keep its specifications open for community discussion across development repositories, pending code reviews and preliminary testing prior to any formalized deployment.
