The forint has been doing okay this year. However, it seems like the forint is starting to wobble. EUR/HUF trades at around 363. The ECB’s daily reference rate shows a pair that consistently hits the same ceiling. If you trade the forint or own Hungarian assets, the chart below illustrates where the pressure lies. The central bank is not rushing to take action. This influences all of the following.
Figure 1: EUR/HUF daily ECB reference rate, 3 August to 4 November 2026, with resistance at 368 and support at 358 to 359.
Reading the Chart
The chart shows daily rates from 3 August to 4 November. The range is narrow. The low was 360.18 on 26 August. The high was 369.18 on 2 October. That is a gap of nine forints in three months. It is a quiet market. The red dashed line at 368 is resistance. The pair briefly moved above it, then fell back within days. The green band at 358 to 359 is support. The rate never dropped below it. Today’s rate is 363.03, halfway between the two. Small rallies and shallow dips mean the market is waiting. Patient traders can do well in a box like this. They can sell near the top and buy near the bottom. They should keep stops tight. Our support and resistance guide shows how to trade boxes like this.
What Holds the Forint Back
Policy is the main story. The central bank held its rate at 5.50% on 20 October. Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose says talk of more cuts keeps the forint from rallying. He states, “Until this happens, HUF isn’t going to have a big push higher.” In addition to the IMF warning about a 7.5% budget deficit, he believes inflation is increasing from low levels to over target. Safe-haven flows are another factor to consider.
Our USD/CHF analysis shows where European money is going.
Levels to Watch
Societe Generale said in August that the pair “appears to be forming a base.” It was indicated that 368 was an area of resistance, and the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) located at approximately 371 would represent another level of resistance. The current price action of the asset continues to align with this perspective. If the asset closes the day higher than 368, it will be the first true breakout. Conversely, if the asset closes lower than 360, it may continue downward to 358. To determine whether or not there is a potential trading opportunity based on these levels, please wait until the end of each day for the close. Please refrain from attempting to make a trade based solely on a price spike. As the European Central Bank (ECB) provides daily rate fixes, live price movements can be larger in scope. Please refer to your personal data feed. Additionally, rising energy prices are contributing to inflation in Hungary.
Keep an eye on our Brent forecast .
Three Scenarios
Bullish for EUR/HUF (weaker forint): a close above 368 targets 371.
Bearish for EUR/HUF (stronger forint): a close below 360 opens 358.
Neutral: the 360 to 368 box holds until the next central bank meeting.
Short and Long-Term Outlook
Short term, expect the box to hold. Capital Economics expects a long pause in rates. Longer term, a lower inflation target from 2028 may help the forint. That depends on the budget behaving. A weaker forint raises costs for importers. A stronger forint squeezes exporters. A softer dollar also helps emerging markets, as our dollar index forecast explains. Will 368 finally crack? Or is the forint building a floor? Set your alerts and your risk before the next headline.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the EUR/HUF resistance level?
The key level is 368. A daily close above it points to 371, near the 200-day average.
What is the Hungarian central bank rate?
The MNB held its base rate at 5.50% on 20 October 2026.
Where is EUR/HUF support?
Support is the 358 to 359 area. The lowest rate on this chart was 360.18 on 26 August.
The post EUR/HUF Forecast: Forint Stuck Below the 368 Ceiling appeared first in UK on InvestingCube .
