TL;DR
Bitcoin recovered into the $77,000-$80,000 support band after testing its $75,839 short-term holder cost basis, but Bitfinex says the rebound remains leverage-driven.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.16 billion in net outflows from October 30 to November 2, while BlackRock’s IBIT lost $405.3 million.
Bitfinex says a daily settlement below $75,839 would weaken the structure, while stronger spot demand, positive ETF flows and cooler funding would improve the recovery case.
Bitfinex says Bitcoin’s recovery remains fragile after the asset briefly tested the short-term holder cost basis near $75,839 before moving back into the $77,000 to $80,000 support band. In its latest market analysis , the exchange said the rebound has been driven more by leverage than by aggressive spot buying. Bitcoin has recovered above $77,000, but Bitfinex sees limited evidence that fresh spot demand is supporting the move , keeping the focus on Bitcoin as traders assess whether the range can hold.
Bitcoin Recovery Remains Driven by Leverage
Aggregate Bitcoin futures open interest reached 701,548 BTC on November 3, its highest level since September 22, while perpetual funding stayed close to an annualized 11% over the previous two weeks. Bitfinex said these readings suggest the bid below $77,000 has been supported primarily by perpetual futures positioning. The recovery therefore looks more leverage-driven than spot-led , reinforcing concerns already visible in slowing Bitcoin demand as holders continue distributing coins despite the rebound.
Selling pressure also remains visible onchain. Short-term holder SOPR stayed below 1 for six consecutive trading sessions and reached 0.994 on November 4, indicating that recent buyers were realizing losses. Net realized losses across all holders deepened to 24,600 BTC from 13,000 BTC on November 2. Recent holders are still selling into recoveries rather than consistently defending their cost basis , leaving the market vulnerable if the high-$70,000 support zone fails to attract stronger demand.
ETF flows add another source of pressure. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.16 billion in net outflows between October 30 and November 2, the largest withdrawal run for the group since late June. BlackRock’s IBIT alone posted $405.3 million in outflows on November 2. Bitfinex says one positive ETF session would not be enough to confirm institutional demand has returned , with the latest three-session ETF outflow streak underscoring how quickly regulated demand has weakened.
Bitfinex’s base case keeps Bitcoin between the $75,839 short-term holder cost basis and the $80,200 upper edge of the options-implied range through November 6. The firm says support would look stronger if price holds above $77,000 while ETF flows turn positive, SOPR returns above 1 and funding cools. A daily settlement below $75,839 would weaken the current structure and expose thinner liquidity between $70,000 and $75,000 , while sustained spot demand would strengthen the recovery case after earlier ETF demand weakness .
