Visa released its 2026 Holiday Spending Outlook report , and it found while consumers put travel at the top of their holiday shopping list, they plan to spend the bulk of their money this season on gifts.
The survey also found a real difference in who is traveling, and in overall holiday spending based on income levels, as Americans face high inflation and increasing cost of living.
More than half of surveyed shoppers say they’d prefer to travel and go to live events—but only 15% are actually pulling the trigger on experiences. Meanwhile, 27% plan to buy physical gifts, according to Visa.
This is partly because of the high cost of travel —made worse by soaring fuel prices and the war in Iran—which has many Americans sticking closer to home for the holidays. Those unused travel dollars could flow into merchandise instead, which is good news for retailers, according to Visa’s economists.
The only exception to the rule are households earning an income of $200,000 and up: They increased both holiday airfare bookings and spending in September, with bookings up 29%, while spending increased 38%.
In contrast, roughly 33% of consumers earning under $100,000 plan to switch to lower-cost brands or stores for holiday gifts, indicating how these shoppers are adapting to higher prices, Visa said.
Overall, Visa’s Business and Economic Insights (VBEI) forecasts U.S. holiday retail sales will rise 4.5% year-over-year in November and December, the strongest growth since 2021. (However, that figure is in part due to inflation. Without taking price increases into consideration, sales are expected to increase 1.1%, down from 1.3% last year.)
Consumers are planning to spend an average of $777 on gifts this year, signaling Americans’ continued willingness to spend, even as shoppers look for value in the face of inflation.
“Consumers are heading into the holidays with the capacity and willingness to spend, even if they’re being thoughtful about where those dollars go,” Michael Brown, principal U.S. economist at Visa, said in a statement. “Income growth continues to provide an important foundation for spending, and while higher prices remain part of the picture, we expect another healthy holiday season.”
Visa surveyed 4,660 U.S. adults ages 18 and older to get a sense of the broader consumer sentiment.
