AMD reports third-quarter earnings after the close today, with the conference call scheduled for 5 p.m. ET. Analysts expect strong growth on both the top and bottom lines.
Adjusted EPS: $1.95 expected vs. $1.20 a year ago, up 62.5%.
Revenue: $13.10 billion expected vs. $9.246 billion a year ago, up 41.7%.
The bar is high heading into the release. On the call, watch what management says about demand for its Instinct AI accelerators and EPYC server processors, and how that demand translates into fourth-quarter revenue and margins.
The stock is up 127.6% this year. How far is it from the high?
AMD closed 2025 at $214.16. At the pre-earnings current price of $487.40, the stock is up $273.24, or 127.6%, year to date. The high for the year was set on October 6 just a month ago at $658.52. A move back to thehigh would require a rally of $171.12, or 35.1%, from $487.40.
On the upside, the moving averages are the first barometer
A more realistic first major target would be the 100-day moving average at $529.18. That is a 8.6% move from the current price at $487.40. The falling 100-hour moving average is at $534.04 and is 9.6% above it. That gives traders a clear resistance area to lean against. Getting above the 100-day MA would be the first step for buyers. Getting and staying above both would take some of the downside pressure off and give buyers more room to push given the right macro dynamics.
On the downside, watch the $438.38 swing level
The first downside target is the $438.38 swing level (September and June low), which is 10.1% below current levels. A break below it would have traders looking toward $422.84, the 50% midpoint of the rally from the March (and 2026) low. A move to that level would be 3.2% below the current price. Below that, the 200-day moving average at $412.96 is the next target, 15.3% lower.
The earnings reaction will set up the next test. If the stock rallies, watch whether buyers can get above $529.18–$534.04 and hold it. It was last above those levels just 3 days ago.
If the stock sells off, $438.38 is the first level where buyers will have a chance to slow the fall. That level was reached on September 2nd.
What are the options pricing in?
The options market is pricing in about an 8% move in AMD after earnings. From $487.40, that puts the implied range near $448 to $526. On the upside, the top of that range comes in just below the 100-day moving average at $529.18, with the 100-hour moving average at $534.04 above it. On the downside, the $438.38 swing level is about 10.1% away. A test of that level would take a larger move than options are pricing in.
AMD has already seen 14 moves of 8% or larger in 2026. Through the November 3 close, the stock gained at least 8% on nine days and fell at least 8% on five days, measured close to close. That’s 14 of 211 sessions, or about one in 15 trading days. For 5% days, there are a total of 49 of 211 or 23.2% of the trading days. Of the 49, a total of 29 were gains of 5% or more, while 20 were losses of 5% or more.
Buckle up.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
